this is super interesting. passage below i found most compelling and one i keep coming back to with design flaws with PMs as well.
"The binary-only market structure can’t compete with perps. It’s a cumbersome approach that leads to fragmented liquidity and even though these teams are trying to bolt on workarounds to solve this, they’re clunky at best. You also have this bizarre structure in many of these markets where there’s a stand-in for unknowns called “Other”, but that introduces the issue of unpacking emerging contenders from that basket into their own individual markets. The binary nature also means you’re not offering true leverage in the way that users want it, which in turn means you can’t actually generate valuable volume in the way that perps exchanges do. I’ve seen people argue about this on twitter quite a bit and it still shocks me that they can’t recognize how betting $100 on a 1c probability outcome on a prediction market is not the same as opening a $100 100x leverage position on a perps exchange."
also really great layout of the article (set the stage of the fundamental problem --> unpack why it's actually a human truism and happens time and time again --> get into why this is happening yet again --> break down and give structural issues + constructive design feedback to fix PMs)
I think this holds with young, successful people as well, the classic gifted kid syndrome, where they end up not improving because they feel they dont have to.
this is super interesting. passage below i found most compelling and one i keep coming back to with design flaws with PMs as well.
"The binary-only market structure can’t compete with perps. It’s a cumbersome approach that leads to fragmented liquidity and even though these teams are trying to bolt on workarounds to solve this, they’re clunky at best. You also have this bizarre structure in many of these markets where there’s a stand-in for unknowns called “Other”, but that introduces the issue of unpacking emerging contenders from that basket into their own individual markets. The binary nature also means you’re not offering true leverage in the way that users want it, which in turn means you can’t actually generate valuable volume in the way that perps exchanges do. I’ve seen people argue about this on twitter quite a bit and it still shocks me that they can’t recognize how betting $100 on a 1c probability outcome on a prediction market is not the same as opening a $100 100x leverage position on a perps exchange."
also really great layout of the article (set the stage of the fundamental problem --> unpack why it's actually a human truism and happens time and time again --> get into why this is happening yet again --> break down and give structural issues + constructive design feedback to fix PMs)
great read
thank you apewood appreciate you
I think this holds with young, successful people as well, the classic gifted kid syndrome, where they end up not improving because they feel they dont have to.
many such cases in sports too innit