Semi-Lucid Thoughts

Let The Bubble Wash Over You

The new regime and how we've slowly baked it into the structural plumbing of financial markets

May 21 • 0xsmac

99

7

13

April 2026

If You're Not First, You're (Maybe? Potentially? Probably?) Last

Convexity of long-tail outcomes and why they matter

Apr 2 • 0xsmac

27

3

January 2026

Splitting Fives: The House Edge On Wonder

When society thinks the world exists to be "solved" we lose the things that make us human

Jan 25 • 0xsmac

43

7

3

Déjà Vu All Over Again

Walls of worry are for climbing

Jan 6 • 0xsmac

44

1

3

Two Kites Dancing In A Hurricane

Why companies find themselves chasing the wrong prize & can we fix prediction markets before it's too late

Jan 1 • 0xsmac

35

4

2

December 2025

Hope's Uninvited Guest

A fictional scene.

Dec 20, 2025 • 0xsmac

18

5

6

October 2025

The Children Yearn For The Fiat Mines

Hypergambling and the boredom of real compounding

Oct 9, 2025 • 0xsmac

107

2

14

September 2025

From Backrooms to Builder Codes

The shift from opaque off-chain venues to onchain transparency isn't just ideological

Sep 3, 2025 • 0xsmac

26

2

5

July 2025

Do You Want To Be Right, Or Do You Want To Be Wrong In Public?

A retroactive look at the first wave of predictions from A Crypto Future

Jul 29, 2025 • 0xsmac

29

1

May 2025

When The Iron Turns To Silk

And are the kids gonna be alright?

May 1, 2025 • 0xsmac

35

4

4

April 2025

If You're Reading This (Hopefully) It's Too Late

The sooner this is irrelevant the better

Apr 5, 2025 • 0xsmac

21

1

1

January 2025

Volatility Is Back On The Menu

When the Fed flaps its wings...

Jan 1, 2025 • 0xsmac

17

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